The local forecast up until 1800hr on Thursday 21st August 2008.

Not only has August been wet and rather cool by day so far, it has also been rather cloudy with 33% less sunshine than we should have had in the first three weeks, with just 78.8 hours of sunshine in Coventry.

Having said that, we are already close to exceding the sunshine total for the whole of August 1902 (87.2 hours, 1912 (91.2 hours) and 1968 (93.2 hours) - these are the only three August months to fail to reach 100 hours of sunshine locally since 1894.

According to the latest forecast models on Wednesday morning, hopes of a warm dry sunny last week of August are fading fast, with this cool spell likely to become prolonged even into early September, though with some warming and fewer showers for us as we head into the weekend, but little chance of any prolonged sunshine to boost those sunshine totals by the looks of it.

On Wednesday, it will be rather cloudy once again with sunny breaks developing from time to time; although mainly dry, there is a continuing risk of occasional showers today, some of which could be heavy in places this afternoon.

In a brisk south to south-westerly breeze, it will feel cool again out of the sun, with maximum temperatures around 19°C, several degrees below average for the 20th of August in Coventry (21.9°C).

Any showers should die away this evening with a mild dry night to follow; expect minima around 14°C.

Outlook - rather cool & breezy on Thursday, with sunny spells and scattered showers, and highs around 19°C.

Friday and Saturday should be manily dry and bright with sunny spells, and just a risk of an odd shower, but with rain on Saturday night.

Cool and unsettled again next week..

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Extracts from a "typical year" in Coventry

August

Although wetter and cloudier than July, August is often warm and humid. With the seas around the country at their warmest, it is rarely a cool month; 1912, 1924, 1931 and 1946 being the exceptions. Here as a result of cold, wet, slow moving depressions from the west.

More usually the Azores high pressure exerts its influence, though the sun is less powerful now, so by month's end there is an autumnal feel to the weather. It is a potentially thundery month, especially after a hot, dry, sultry first few days. Witness the record heat (35.1°C) on 3rd August 1990. 21°C is the average daytime average for August in Coventry, with 26°C the likely maximum on the month's hottest day. Four of the ten warmest August months have occurred in recent years – 1990, 1995, 1997 and 2003.

It is though, the wettest month of the year in Coventry, though only 8 wet days are expected. Heavy, thundery rain is expected to produce 22mm of rain on at least one day. The 1970’s was the wettest recent decade for August (80mm), with the 1940’s and 1990’s the driest (56mm). The August months between 2000 and 2007 averaged 60.9mm of rain for comparison.

The 1960's must have been a miserable decade temperature-wise, with an average temperature for August of just 15.2C! Once again we find that those years recorded the coldest decadal mean for the city, with a definite recovery by the 1980's (16.3C) back to the levels of the 1930's. By the 1990’s, August saw a further one degree rise in average monthly temperatures, and so far the mean since the Millennium for August has been 17.4C.

The 1960’s was also the dullest August decade (145.8hr), with the 1990’s the sunniest (205.1hr). The first years of the 21st century have only averaged 173.1hr of August sunshine in our region.

So what of Summer in Coventry?

Air in summer can hold more water vapour, and so rainfall is more intensive than at any other time of year. Thunderstorms are relatively frequent, featuring on at least 4 days in a typical summer. For a hot, dry summer like 1911, 1921, 1976, and 1995, we need anticyclonic conditions to prevail, with an easterly air flow.

Although our warmest season, average temperatures of just 15.5°C reflect the generally cool nature of a typical Coventry summer. We can look forward to at least 1 day with a high of 26°C, but temperatures exceeding 30°C are still newsworthy, though there were 4 such days in 2003, and 5 in 2006, the hottest summer on record.

It is of course, our sunniest season; an average of 5.7 hours of sunshine per day is our normal quota, though 15.9 hours is just possible in late June & early July.

Paradoxically, it is also our wettest season, though in the fewest number of wet days. 18.6mm is the average for our wettest summer day - once again, likely to result from thundery activity.

Of course, Summer 2007 was the wettest Summer on record in Coventry, with records dating back to 1870; surprisingly, we have to go back to 1994 and 1995 to find the last particularly dry summers in our region.

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